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October 16, 2008

Whatever Happened to Brett Smiley?

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One day I found myself looking for obscure "glam rock" compilations on Amazon UK and the "customers who bought this" recommendation led me to an album called "Breathlessly Brett" an LP originally recorded in the mid-1970s -- but not released until 2003 -- by a then teenage performer named Brett Smiley. It seldom left my CD player for the next month.

I'd never heard of Brett Smiley before, but when I did a search on him, an interesting story emerged. Smiley was just 16 years old when he was discovered by Rolling Stones manager Andew Loog Oldham. At 18, he was given a $200,000 recording deal and recorded an album, produced by Oldham and with Steve Marriott from the Small Faces on guitar. An amazingly raucous single "Va Va Va Voom" was released and heavily hyped with Smiley's face appearing in ads all over London and in an extremely over the top performance and interview on the popular Russell Harty Plus TV program.

The single bombed, the album was shelved and other than a few brief film cameos (like "American Gigolo") Smiley wasn't heard from again until 2003 when RPM records acquired the master tapes. The sad truth was the Smiley wallowed in serious, skid row drug addiction for years. His legend proved strongly intriguing for glam rock fans and Johnny Thunders biographer, Nina Antonina, wrote a book, The Prettiest Star: What Ever Happened to Brett Smiley about how Smiley's brief pop supernova moment influenced her teenaged years.

Now recovered from the drug excesses of his past, Smiley continues to record and perform, mostly around New York City.

The Russell Harty clip features Smiley performing his Ziggy-influenced "Space Ace" (the "Va Va Va Voom" B-side) and it's pretty incredible if you like this sort of thing. (Turn the sound up really loud as the audio sounds weaker than the CD version) "Space Ace" performance

(Richard Metzger is guest blogger.)


New online magazine edited by R.U. Sirius

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Our friend R.U. Sirius is editing a new magazine called h+ and the first issue is available as a free PDF.

Humanity Plus (formerly the World Transhumanist Association) – in collaboration with former Mondo 2000 editor RU Sirius -- is pleased to present h+. A web-based quarterly magazine, h+ covers the scientific, technological, and cultural developments that are challenging and overcoming human limitations. ?

Recently, there has been a growing and evolving public discourse about new technological trends and possibilities. Scientists and edge thinkers are talking about– and working on -- slowing or ending aging; body and brain enhancement; biological control of the genome and the evolutionary process; and the possibility of a technological singularity brought on by AI… to name just a few of the interests and obsessions of this new edge tech culture. h+ magazine is all over it.

Beautifully designed by virtual worlds artistic legend D.C. Spensley (AKA DanCoyote in Second Life), h+ is accessible, stylish, contemporary, and sometimes playful. h+ aims to provides an entry point for intelligent people to develop an awareness of this new technological paradigm, while also providing an outlet and a voice for those who are already hooked in to the "transhumanist" vision.

Featuring interviews with science fiction author Charlie Stross and anti-aging legend Aubrey de Grey, issue #1 of h+ magazine is now at hplusmagazine.com Editor R.U. Sirius promises to continue editing the periodical for "approximately 300 years."

h+ magazine

Investors Recognizing How ProIP Is Bad For The Entertainment Industry

Kevin Stapp writes in to point out an interesting article over at the Motley Fool, where the author, Anders Bylund, points out why the new ProIP law is bad for the big entertainment companies from the perspective of an investor in those companies. Basically, he recognizes what some of us have been saying for years. If you rely on stronger copyright as a crutch to protect an old business model, you're much slower to adopt newer business models that can greatly increase the size of your market. In other words, by denying the growth potential of infinite goods, you shrink the potential size of your market, and that's bad for the company and bad for investors:
As much as I love my Walt Disney investment and the great entertainment the company has created over the years, it's also part of a boneheaded industry that can't deal with the digital revolution.... Disney, Warner Music, and their colleagues could handle rampant piracy in a much more delicate manner and turn today's massive problem into free distribution and dirt cheap marketing. Yes, there are ways to make money when others copy your dearly beloved content for free. The PRO-IP Act is a step in exactly the wrong direction, though.
Exactly. And this reinforces the point that it's a mistake to keep trying to find the right "balance" between content producers and content consumers. There's no need for a balance if the content producers adopt business models that both expand their market (by properly defining the market) and leave consumers free to share and promote the content in a way that actually helps the bottom line of the content producer. It's quite rare to see short-term investor-types recognize such strategies, so it's quite interesting to see a discussion like this on a mainstream site like the Motley Fool. Hopefully others will start recognizing this reality soon as well.

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Hollow spy coins

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Brian Dereu, a wonderful MAKE magazine contributor, has started a new business selling hollow spy coins.

During the Cold War, Spies from both the East and West used Hollow Coins to ferry secret messages, suicide poisons, and microfilms undetected. On May 1st, 1960 U2 Pilot Gary Francis Powers was shot down over the Soviet Union and taken captive. In his possession was a hollow silver dollar containing a poisoned needle that was to be used to take his own life in such a circumstance. For one reason or another, he did not use it and was held for 21 months by the Soviets. He was then exchanged for Soviet spy KGB Colonel Vilyam Fisher (aka Rudolf Abel) at the Glienicke Bridge, in Berlin, Germany. Colonel Fisher was also no stranger to hollow coins...his original capture by the United States FBI was directly related to a hollow nickel that was used to transport microfilm.

On the following pages are exact duplicates of Cold War Spy Coins. They are all precision machined from actual coins, and are absolutely indistinguishable from a solid coin to the naked eye. They can be safely handled without danger of separation, and can easily circulate without detection. These exact replicas are proudly made in The USA.

Hollow spy coins

Web Singletons?

tcmb writes "There are an uncounted number of web mail and picture sharing services, there are more than enough web sites for online bookmark management and friend-finding, but as far as I know there is only one Internet Archive. Which are the true web singletons, services that exist only once in this form?" And does anything approach the singular time-wasting abilities of IMDB or Wikipedia?

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Tool To Allow ISPs To Scan Every File You Transmit

timdogg writes "Brilliant Digital Entertainment, an Australian software company, has grabbed the attention of the NY attorney general's office with a tool they have designed that can scan every file that passes between an ISP and its customers. The tool can 'check every file passing through an Internet provider's network — every image, every movie, every document attached to an e-mail or found in a Web search — to see if it matches a list of illegal images.' As with the removal of the alt.binary newgroups, this is being promoted under the guise of preventing child porn. The privacy implications of this tool are staggering."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Batman vs. The Penguin: The Debate


The more things change... (Thanks, Liz!)

Blender Defender - Keeping cats off kitchen counters






Brian writes in about the Blender Defender. He writes -

Hi MAKE! I just finished the web page for my latest project: the Blender Defender. I have a problem with my cat jumping up on the counter and eating my plant up there, so I pointed a network camera at it and ran some motion detection software. As soon as my computer detects motion on the counter, it sends a signal to turn on an extremely loud blender and a strobe light, scaring the cat off the counter.


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Ev is Twitter’s new CEO

This is a surprise!

http://dave.bit.ly/evNewCeo

Not sure exactly what to think.

Another Band Starts Bundling Scarce And Infinite Goods

For many years we've been talking about a variety of business models that bands can use to still make money, even if their music is free -- often by focusing on the scarcities that they can sell. A big one, is access to the band. One of the first ideas we pointed out was how bands could effectively set up a fan club that fans could buy into that would give them special features: early access to concert tickets, backstage passes, private concerts, early access to music, view of the music creation process, chance to chat with band members, etc. All of those things are then made more valuable if there are more fans, so giving away the music only helps that business grow.

One of our readers, Kyle, points us to an experiment by the band Mudvayne that doesn't get all the way there, but does seem to move in that direction. The band has started a program called "The Album is The Ticket" that gives people a reason to buy the actual, physical album. When you do, you're given a code that lets them go to a website, get a one-year free membership into the band's "fan club" that includes early access to the best tickets at concerts. The band doesn't appear to have taken it to the level of also giving away and promoting free music, but hopefully they'll recognize that doing so would increase the demand for this kind of program. What the band is doing, effectively, is recognizing that they need to give people a real reason to buy the CD -- and that goes beyond music (because people can get the music for free). So rather than just focusing on the CD itself and what comes in the jewel case, they've recognized that by giving people a code they can also give them access to additional services.

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E17, Slimmed Down For Cell Phones

twitter writes "Want to run Enlightenment on your cell phone? The Rasterman's recent efforts bring E17 to Open Moko FreeRunner and Treo 650: 'According to the Rasterman, when used with his updated illume stack and new Elementary widget set, E17 can now run in just 32MB of RAM, on an ARM9 processor clocked at 317MHz. To prove it, he is distributing a Linux kernel and E17/Illume/Elementary stack for Palm's Treo650. The stack can be launched from PalmOS without touching the device's flash storage, he says.' While Microsoft fumbles with limited 'instant on,' GNU/Linux rules the embedded world and that's the only thing going in the IT market right now."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Making Austin Weird: LED Art Kits

From now until the awesomeness that is Maker Faire Austin, I'll be highlighting projects that you can find at Travis County Fairgrounds on 10/18-19. Tickets here; see you there!

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From the creator of Blinkybug, here's a beautiful new kit debuting at Maker Faire Austin:

I'll have these new LED Art Kits ready for the upcoming Austin Maker Faire, where I'll be doing demos and workshops for these (as well as Blinkybugs).

They're really easy to make, and use color-changing RGB LEDs to cast slowly shifting patterns of light on the translucent "canvas."

Yet another reason to be in Austin this weekend!

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Wilson Miner on a crafty use of RGBa

The homepage in particular uses RGBA color values to add transparency to the text so it picks up the background tone, whether it's a solid color or an image. Even the "black" text on the homepage is slightly transparent, which gives it just a hint of the background color. It softens the contrast a bit, and it reminds me of the effect when I used to overprint colors in print design.

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Scenes from Maker Faire setting up…

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The MAKE and CRAFT teams are all assembling in Austin... Assembling Maker Faire! You can follow along at my photostream on Flickr or tune in to the MAKE and Maker Faire Twitter feed...

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W movie party in Berkeley

Let's play hookie tomorrow and see the W opening at California Theaters on Kittridge at 4:05PM. We can go out and get a bite to eat after. If you'd like to participate sign up on this Upcoming page.

http://upcoming.yahoo.com/event/1237753/

Schneier Calls Quantum Cryptography Impressive But Pointless

KindMind writes "Bruce Schneier writes in Wired that quantum cryptography, while an awesome technology, is actually pointless (that is, of no commercial value). His point is that the science of cryptography is not the weak point, but the other links in the chain (like people, etc.) are where it breaks down."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

The Traditional Banner Ad Business May Be In Even More Trouble Than You Think

It's no secret that we're not big fans of the banner ad business -- and, in fact, part of what we're doing with Floor64 and the Insight Community is helping to offer companies alternatives to wasteful spending on straight banner ads. Just a couple months ago, I moderated a panel at a marketing conference, where we talked about "the death of the banner ad." And, while every person on the panel admitted that banner ads aren't particularly effective, they said they still bought them, just because it's part of what you do. However, that may soon be changing. The first hint may have come earlier this year, when people started realizing that banner ads on hot social networking properties were worthless. And, now, with the financial crisis freaking people out left and right, some are considering pulling back on their ad spending.

And, if they needed any more ammunition for that, a new study from Jakob Nielsen shows that ad blindness is more widespread and more comprehensive than almost anyone realized. Almost no one looks at banner ads. The only "advertisements" that people look at are search ads, because in those cases, people are actively looking for something, and the ads often provide it. In other words, in those cases, the ads are good content.

This doesn't mean that it doesn't make sense to reach out to the people who make up your market. It just means to stop thinking about just bombarding them with meaningless "push" messaging that they'll ignore completely -- and start actually engaging them and providing good content.

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Extended Gmail Outage Frustrates Admins

CWmike writes "A prolonged, ongoing Gmail outage has some Google Apps administrators pulling their hair out as their end users, including high-ranking executives, complain loudly while they wait for service to be restored. At about 5 p.m. U.S. Eastern on Wednesday, Google announced that the company was aware of the problem preventing Gmail users from logging into their accounts and that it expected to fix it by 9 p.m. on Thursday. Google offered no explanation of the problem or why it would take it so long to solve the problem, a '502' error when trying to access Gmail. Google said the bug is affecting 'a small number of users,' but that is little comfort for Google Apps administrators. Admin Bill W. posted a desperate message on the forum Thursday morning, saying his company's CEO is steaming about being locked out of his e-mail account since around 4 p.m. on Wednesday. It's not the first Gmail outage. So, will this one prompt calls for a service-level agreement for paying customers? And a more immediate question: Why no Gears for offline Gmail access at very least, Google?"

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Is this what they meant?

Is this what they meant by Let McCain Be McCain?

Tools that build on Netflix API?

A few weeks ago Netflix announced an API.

Following up -- is anyone aware of tools that build on the API? I'm specifically interested in tools that can be used to extract my reviews data into XML so I can use it in other applications.

Plywood laptop case

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Gorgeous plywood laptop case by via NOTCOT.


This project is an exploration into the process of bending plywood. The laptop case is formed from two bend panels of plywood which slide along one another to encase the laptop computer.The case is lined with cork to provide additional heat resistance and protection. The case is lined with cork for a natural form of protection. The case opens and closes using two pieces of wood that slide along one another.


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Mars Lander Instrument Waving In the Martian Wind

Matt_dk writes "This series of images show Phoenix's telltale instrument waving in the Martian wind. Documenting the telltale's movement helps mission scientists and engineers determine what the wind is like on Mars. On the day these images were taken, one of the images seemed to be 'out-of-phase' with other images, possibly indicating a dust devil occurrence."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Stickers: Property of the Bavarian Illuminati! Ewige Blumenkraft!

Matt sez, "In the spirit of accurate labeling, such as 'antibacterial,' 'All-natural,' and 'Now SLOWER and with MORE BUGS!,' I've made these 'Property of the Bavarian Illuminati! Ewige Blumenkraft!' stickers. They should be placed wherever the Illuminati's influence is painfully obvious, yet conspicuously undeclared! They're a homage to one of my favorite authors and a man who knew the value of the absurd, the late Robert Anton Wilson. I'll have them with me at Maker Faire Austin, for anyone who wants a handful!" Accuracy in Labeling — Property of the Bavarian Illuminati (Thanks, Matt!)

Just bought an MSI

Well, I decided it was time to upgrade my netbook act, and I plunked down the money for an MSI Wind U100-279US at a place called JustNetbooks.com.

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Apparently they do their fulfillment with Amazon, I paid through Amazon, got cheap 1-day shipping (fingers crossed) for $3.99 because I'm an Amazon Prime member. Hopefully it'll be here tomorrow so I can start setting it up before my next road trip.

This looks to be an improvement over the Asus, which if all goes well I'll turn into a server.

BTW, I had a thought, wouldn't it be great if Apple sold netbooks, even though they aren't making them, at Apple stores? They sell printers made by other companies. When they finally get around to making an Apple-branded netbook they could kick out the other brands. It would be nice to be able to impulse-buy one of these babies locally.

Publishing a Commercial iPhone Game, Start To Finish

Niklas Wahrman writes with this "motivational story on how a student and part-time developer was able to take an idea and turn it into an Android project and then port to iPhone for commercial release in less than a year. In the article, he focuses on how to get a game done — a problem many independent developers face. During the development of the game, Asterope, he took a lot of screenshots from many of the development stages that show how the game gradually came to life."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Tales from the underground economy

 Images Offthebookscover A few days ago, NPR's This American Life re-aired (and podcasted) an incredible story about Nellie Thomas, a black market ammunition dealer on the South side of Chicago. He had so much cash that he didn't know what to do with it, and he didn't trust banks. So he hid it in plastic bags, mattresses, and pillows. His wealth was also a source of agony because he was embarrassed by how he had earned it. So he came up with a curious, inspirational, and funny way to get rid of it. The story, titled "Everything Must Go," was told by Columbia University sociology professor Sudhir Alladi Venkatesh, who had gotten to know Thomas while writing a book called Off the Books: The Underground Economy of the Urban Poor, about people who earn a living running auto repair shops out of alleys, grocery stores in their homes, and other non-traditional businesses. Venkatesh is featured in Freakonomics, and Cory reviewed Off The Books when it came out but I had forgotten all about it. Nellie Thomas's tale hooked me though. I can't wait to read the whole book to hear interesting financial tales that have nothing to do with Wall Street, or "Main Street" for that matter.
"Everything Must Go" (This American Life), Off the Books: The Underground Economy of the Urban Poor (Amazon)

DIY Halloween : Bleeding Pictures

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Yes I do post a lot of DIY projects that involve bleeding? You got a problem with that? Oh wait phillip told me I need to behave so how about "What's so wrong with that?". I mean isn't Halloween all about hacking things to make them bleed and disturb your neighbors? Check out how to make a normal painting bleed by clicking here.

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Microsoft Considers “Instant On” Windows

Barence writes "In what might be a glimpse of things to come in Windows 7, Microsoft is asking customers whether they would be interested in a new 'Instant-on' version of Windows. 'We would like your feedback on a new concept,' the Microsoft survey states. 'The Instant On experience is different from "Full Windows" because it limits what activities you can do and what applications you can have access to.' Sounds interesting but hardly new: Asus and Dell have produced laptops that provide swift access to apps and data using Linux subsystems."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

EA Brushes Off DRM Complainers As Fringe 0.2%

It would appear that gaming company EA got the wrong message concerning DRM after its Spore DRM debacle. While EA eventually backed down, it certainly did plenty to damage its own reputation in the gaming community. Hell, when we recently posted an article about EA that had nothing to do with DRM at all, a bunch of commenters used the post to complain about EA's DRM policy anyway. That suggests a Metallica-like reputation problem.

So, how is EA dealing with this reputation issue? Apparently by dismissing it as nothing to be concerned about. A whole bunch of our readers sent in this story about an EA exec claiming that only 0.2% of users would even notice the DRM used in Spore -- basically suggesting that the complaints were hyped up and out of proportion to the issue. That's sort of missing the point. While some users who complained might never actually encounter problems with the DRM, that doesn't mean that they're comfortable with the idea that EA has significantly limited how they can use a product that they purchased. Even a quick review of the history of DRM would show EA execs two things: it does nothing to stop piracy, and it seriously gets in the way of legitimate users, no matter how artfully designed.

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Odd drawing hanging on pole

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I snapped the above photos this morning in a Palo Alto, CA train station parking lot. There was no stickers, fliers, or any other material hanging on any of the other poles in the area. I know that taping up a paper drawing isn't as "permanent" as traditional graffiti, but I like the idea of hanging art in unusual public places. I also dig the drawing. I hope nobody takes it though so that others can enjoy it. Click on the images to see them larger.

How to make cocaine


Interesting video of jungle based cocaine factory. (via Neatorama)

Getting Started with Arduino getting started at Maker Faire

Yesterday afternoon, a whoop of excitement resounded throughout the Maker Shed -- currently under construction at Maker Faire Austin -- as we cracked open boxes of Getting Started with Arduino, fresh from the printers. There's nothing that beats that feeling of seeing the results of so much hard work and devotion in physical form. The book, authored by Arduino co-founder Massimo Banzi, offers a brief, fun, and lucid overview of Arduino that I bet is going to appeal to lots of people who've been wanting to get into physical computing but have been looking for a (er...) bit-sized way in. This handy little guide should be just the ticket!

Also pictured above is our new Arduino Starter Kit. It looks really sweet too and is a great value for what you get. We're excited to see how fairgoers respond to these new offerings when the store throws open its doors on Saturday morning. If you come to the Faire, stop by the Shed, check 'em out, say hi, and tells us what you think. Getting Started with Arduino is available at Maker Shed online for pre-order. The Arduino Starter Kit is available now.

From the Maker Shed:

Maker Faire Austin this weekend, Oct. 18 & 19, 2008

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If you're headed to Maker Faire Austin this weekend, please come by the Maker Shed to visit the Make editorial staff. You can also take workshops there. On Saturday at 11:30, and Sunday at 2:30, my friend Jenny Hart will be teaching embroidery. Maker Faire Austin

Tombstone kills man

On Monday, a Buckingham, Quebec man died in a cemetery when a tombstone fell on his back. Apparently, the 77-year-old was digging near his parents grave when the concrete stone crashed down on him. The CBC News article does not explain why he might have been digging. From CBC News:
"It appears he moved the stone and was digging a hole around the foundation when the concrete block fell on his back," said Const. Isabelle Poirier.
Man dies in Quebec cemetery after tombstone falls on him

Colliding Galaxies Reveal Colossal Black Holes

Matt_dk writes "New observations made with the Submillimeter Array of telescopes in Hawaii suggest that black holes — thought to exist in many, if not all, galaxies — were common even in the early Universe, when galaxies were just beginning to form. Astronomers have found two very different galaxies in the distant Universe, both with colossal black holes at their hearts, involved in a spectacular collision."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Halloween cocktail photos

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Keeping in the spirit of Cory's synthetic snot how-to post, here's a site with Halloween cocktail photos. This particular concoction, called the Brain Hemorrhage is From TangoPango's Filckr site. Halloween Cocktails

Can You Really Own The Idea Of Making Your iPhone Look Like Beer?

It's time to raise your glasses in a toast to ridiculous intellectual property lawsuits. Or, if you don't have a tasty beverage on hand, perhaps a virtual one, say, on your iPhone? Well, unfortunately for you, that may be a problem -- as the latest ridiculous lawsuit concerns two competing virtual beer applications, both of which make your iPhone look like the side of a full beer glass, that will "drain" the beer, as you tilt the iPhone. Cute, gimmicky app, right? Except if you're a pissed off developer who seems to think that only one person should be allowed to make such an app. A company called Hottrix that made such an app is suing the beer company Coors for an astounding $12.5 million for offering up a similar app of its own.

Hottrix's app, iPint, cost money, whereas Coors (perhaps implicitly recognizing how infinite goods -- the silly app -- can help sell more scarce goods -- beer) gave its app, iBeer, away for free. The Coors version was more involved, as it also included a "game" where you needed to guide a sliding pint across a bar into some waiting hands. Hottrix's lawyers claim that the idea of such a virtual beer glass is copyrightable -- which seems fairly questionable. Concepts can't be covered by copyright. It needs to be the exact implementation, and as long as the Coors version was different, then it's difficult to see the copyright claim. Hottrix also pulls out the bogus argument that iPint hurt iBeer's sales. That's simply incorrect. It wasn't Coors that hurt Hottrix's sales, it was Hottrix, for having a bad business model. Competition isn't illegal.

But, of course, Apple in its infinite (loop) wisdom, removed the Coors app after Hottrix complained, thus protecting Hottrix from its own business model mistake. And yet, Hottrix still wants $12.5 million from Coors for daring to come up with a similar idea. You have to hope this gets thrown out of court quickly.

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Android Also Comes With a Kill-Switch

Aviran writes "The search giant is retaining the right to delete applications from Android handsets on a whim. Unlike Apple, the company has made no attempt to hide its intentions, and includes the details in the Android Market terms and conditions, as spotted by Computer World: 'Google may discover a product that violates the developer distribution agreement... in such an instance, Google retains the right to remotely remove those applications from your device at its sole discretion.'"

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Android Also Comes With a Kill-switch

Aviran writes "The search giant is retaining the right to delete applications from Android handsets on a whim. Unlike Apple, the company has made no attempt to hide its intentions, and includes the details in the Android Market terms and conditions, as spotted by Computer World: 'Google may discover a product that violates the developer distribution agreement ... in such an instance, Google retains the right to remotely remove those applications from your device at its sole discretion.'"

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Eat Me: memoir and cookbook from Shopsin’s, the best, most eclectic eatery in Greenwich Village

I first read about Shopsin's Greenwich Village restaurant in Calvin Trillan's classic New Yorker tribute to it, and its owner, the eccentric, garrulous, cranky Kenny Shopsin. The last time I was in New York, I managed to eat there, getting breakfast with Teresa Nielsen Hayden at the new location in Essex Market. I was transported by some of the most satisfying food I've ever been privileged to eat.

Now, the notoriously publicity-shy Kenny Shopsin has written a book (with Carolynn Carreno) about the philosophy and history of the restaurant, called Eat Me: The Food and Philosophy of Kenny Shopsin, and it, too, is an utterly satisfying, utterly peculiar experience.

Kenny Shopsin's restaurant began life as a grocery store, purchased for $25,000 by his father for his peripatetic son (Shopsin describes himself then as a neurotic who saw a therapist five days a week). In the grocery store, Shopsin found a kind of frenetic peace in cultivating and deepening his relationship with his customers (one of whom, Eve, he married). Gradually, he added prepared food to the grocery lineup, then more and more, as the satisfaction of cooking for others seized his interest, until the grocery store became a restaurant.

The two things I'd remembered about Shopsin's from the New Yorker piece was that there were 900 things on the menu and that parties of five could not be seated, ever, even if they split into a three and a two (there's a lovely bit of verse explaining this rule in the book, written by an affectionate Shopsin's regular).

When Teresa and I ate there last summer, I was trepidatious about asking for some substitutions, given Shopsin's reputation for being a real hardcase with finicky eaters, but he was glad to try some new stuff for me, and the food turned out superbly. I had a kind of African groundnut stew with pumpkin, and a soya pumpkin-pecan spice malted that was so good, I can actually still taste it when I close my eyes. Shopsin himself was hilarious and warm, dropping the f-bomb more quickly and frequently than any other restauranteur of my experience. He talked over the food with us, asking Teresa why she hadn't eaten the taco-shell bowl her meal came in, listening carefully, and vowing to revise the recipe based on her feedback.

Shopsin's memoir is like the man: loud, opinionated, warm, exuberant and absolutely delightful. He had me when he revealed that he'd named one of his dishes solely to piss off Andrea Dworkin ("she's probably never heard of this dish"), but I really caught fire when I came to section on pancakes.

First, there's the revelation that Shopsin's pancake batter is Aunt Jemima's Frozen, and the lengthy explanation of why this is so. Then there's the gallery of pancake variations, including chocolate peanut butter, coconut, oatmeal, chorizo corn, post-moderns, spinach walnut and pear pignoli, all mouthwateringly good. It reminded me of nothing so much as the sloppy cooks that feature in some of Daniel Pinkwater's best books, like Borgel and Fat Men from Space -- Shopsin's is pure Pinkwater, like something that popped off the page.

Then there's the crepes: they're not crepes. They're flour tortillas, dipped in milk and flash-fried on the super-hot griddle (Shopskin reveals that he drilled out bigger burner-jets on his custom stove). He swears that French tourists tell him they're the best crepes they've ever eaten.

Shopsin's my kind of obsessive. He's kind of sentimental (his kids feature heavily in the memoir and recipes, and the book includes photos of them having diaper changes in the kitchen and even a Polaroid of an unidentified lad's naked, lacerated butt, labelled "7/10/77 sink accident"). He's addicted to excess and clutter and would rather answer any either-or question with "both." He makes an introspective, overwhelming obsession out of any physical task, and talks in awesome detail about the efficiency hacks he's discovered in order to allow him to serve 900 dishes from a kitchen the size of a walk-in closet.

Shopsin's memoir is eclectic and sometimes frustrating -- as when he recounts the stories of the friends whom he has written out of his life for some ancient sleight, right after telling you about the close personal relationship he once enjoyed with them and the recipes they inspired for him.

But this book is just purely magic. It's a manifesto for cranky, lovable, excessive individualism. It's a call-to-arms to woo the muse of the odd and thumb your nose at convention. And it's got some damned tasty recipes.

Seven ounces is the perfect size for a hamburger. One thing that people don't understand is that when a portion size is too big, it is just bigger, not better. When I am served an 8-ounce burger, I recognize that it is a nice idea -- somebody is trying to give me a lot for my money. But the truth is that I don't really want an 8-ounce burger. It is too much. And when you are eating something that is too much, there comes a point where you're not enthusiastic about it anymore. You can't even taste it. After a lot of consideration, I have determined that 7 ounces is the perfect burger size.
Eat Me: The Food and Philosophy of Kenny Shopsin, Shopsin's

See also:
* A small and beautiful restauranteur
* Eccentric diner-menu infodesign

Fake snot

I wish there were a larger picture of this snot - I think it's some of the nicest looking fake snot I've seen. The recipe is here.

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HOWTO Make honest, simple fake snot

Oh, I know that there's this huge vogue today for making fake snot with molecular gastronomy techniques, a kind of gourmet fetishism for this basic, simple, honest farmland staple. I don't care. I like my fake snot like I like my text-editors: simple, powerful, and green. Lucky for me, About.com Chemistry's Anne Marie Helmenstine, Ph.D., has an old-fashioned, traditional folk-recipe for fake snot.
This is a gooey, gross variation of the traditional slime recipe, great for Halloween and other occasions requiring snot.
How To Make Fake Snot (via Make)

FBI Warns of Sweeping Global Threat To US Cybersecurity

GovIT Geek writes "The FBI's newly appointed chief of cyber security warned today that 'a couple dozen' countries are eager to hack US government, corporate, and military networks. While he refused to provide country-specific details, FBI Cyber Division Chief Shawn Henry told reporters at a roundtable that cooperation with foreign law enforcement is one of the Bureau's highest priorities and added the United States has had incredible success fostering overseas partnerships."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

FBI Warns of Sweeping Global Threat To U.S. Cybers

GovIT Geek writes "The FBI's newly appointed chief of cyber security warned today that 'a couple dozen' countries are eager to hack U.S. government, corporate and military networks. While he refused to provide country-specific details, FBI Cyber Division Chief Shawn Henry told reporters at a round table cooperation with foreign law enforcement is one of the bureau's highest priorities and added the United States has had incredible success fostering overseas partnerships."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Best microscopic photos of 2008


National Geographic Nikon's picked its best microscopic images for 2008 and there's some stunners this year -- like this high-mag view of the antibiotic powder mitomycin. Best Microscopic Images of 2008 Announced (Thanks, Marilyn!)

Only 4.13% of the Web Is Standards-Compliant

Death Metal writes "Browser maker Opera has published the early results of an ongoing study that aims to provide insight into the structure of Internet content. To conduct this research project, Opera created the Metadata Analysis and Mining Application (MAMA), a tool that crawls the web and indexes the markup and scripting data from approximately 3.5 million pages."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Only 4.13% of the Web Is Standards-compliant

Death Metal writes "Browser maker Opera has published the early results of an ongoing study that aims to provide insight into the structure of Internet content. To conduct this research project, Opera created the Metadata Analysis and Mining Application (MAMA), a tool that crawls the web and indexes the markup and scripting data from approximately 3.5 million pages."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Pedal powered guitar takes to the streets

This street busker in Bath, England has built a pedal powered machine that plays a guitar while he accompanies it with a violin solo. Pretty simple idea that we applaud for its DIY sensibilities and taking his invention to the streets.

Guitar Machine via NeatoRama

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Details Released On The Radiohead Experiment Results: A Tremendous Success

While Trent Reznor has been very open in discussing the results of his various business model experiments, Radiohead has been notoriously quiet about it -- leading some to falsely assume that the experiment was a failure. CNN even called it one of the dumbest moments in business last year. That seemed ridiculous on its face, as it was quite clear that the experiment was a huge success for Radiohead, even if the band was quiet about the numbers. However, Radiohead's publisher has now come out and revealed some of the numbers and debunked the myth that the experiment was a failure (thanks to SteveD for sending this over). Instead, it turns out that Radiohead made much more money from this experiment than from their previous album. The band's music was spread much more widely than previous albums, with over 1.75 million physical albums sold (and that's not counting all of the paid downloads) -- as compared to its previous albums, which all sold in the hundreds of thousands. About the only downside to the experiment was that the band found itself talking about the experiment more than the music.

Now, of course, some will point out that this experiment isn't very representative, because Radiohead got a huge boost by being the first high profile band to do this. And that's absolutely true. But that doesn't mean the business model doesn't work at a more reasonable level. Obviously, Radiohead got a big boost from doing something unique and different, but that just gives other bands reasons to look at not just copying Radiohead, but adding more unique offerings themselves. That's how business models innovate, by trying out new stuff and trying to attract attention. Unfortunately, though, we still have big record labels who think business model innovation is having Congress protect your old business model.

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Full Review of the T-Mobile G1 Android Device

palmsolo writes "Want to see the biggest and most in-depth review of the T-Mobile G1 Google Android device from a person who has been using it for a week? Check out over 260 photos and 5 videos of the device and just about every screen of the Google Android OS. Find out how well HTC, T-Mobile and Google did with this first-generation device." I played with one for a few minutes and found it a solid unit. It feels less polished than the iPhone, but the screen and keyboard are great. It'll be a real test of Open Source to see what happens with the iPhone App Store's closed system vs. Android's open one.

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Full Review of the T-Mobile G1 Android Device

palmsolo writes "Want to see the biggest and most in-depth review of the T-Mobile G1 Google Android device from a person who has been using it for a week? Check out over 260 photos and 5 videos of the device and just about every screen of the Google Android OS. Find out how well HTC, T-Mobile and Google did with this first generation device." I played with one for a few minutes and found it a solid unit. It feels less polished than the iPhone, but the screen and keyboard is great. It'll be a real test of Open Source to see what happens with the iPhone App Store's closed system vs Android's open one.

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Scientists mostly don’t know what a “theory” is, nor should they?

In a thought-provoking rant, the Effect Measure science blog challenges the idea that science students should (or can!) know what a "fact," a "theory" and a "model" are. These are not simple, settled concepts, but rather areas of hotly contested debate.
Most scientists also can't properly say what distinguishes science from pseudoscience, say what a fact is, give a satisfying rendition of what a theory is, etc. The problem is that Mr. Williams can't do it either, because there is no agreement on these knotty matters. He seems to think these are simple and settled questions. But finding adequate criteria that separate science from pseudoscience, the so-called Demarcation Problem, remains an unsettled question in the philosophy of science. It is so difficult, and possibly so fruitless, that many philosophers have ceased to be concerned with it. Similarly, what is a "fact"?...

A wag once commented (and I have quoted here often) that to expect a scientist to understand the philosophy of science is like expecting a fish to understand hydrodynamics. I guess the same thing goes for science educators, although it is less excusable. Mr. Williams seems to be under the impression that these extremely difficult foundational issues are settled and should be common knowledge for all scientists.

A rant about science educators

Electric motorcycle will get you there to build another one

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Here's yet another cool electric motorcycle mod. This time it is based around a recycled 1986 Kawasaki Ninja ZX 900 where the only working components of the original bike were the tires, frame, and suspension. The bike was retrofitted with a 72 volt drive train powered by 6 batteries and a photovoltaic array. Check out the link below for all the details on this impressive build.

Electric Motorcycle Conversion via InHabitat

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Where the wild masks are …

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Oh man, Sjeanette's Where the Wild Things Are masks are completely great! [via Neatorama]

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First Official Photos From New Star Trek Movie

Philias Fog writes "The most secret project in Hollywood is finally lifting its skirt. Today Paramount released a number of images for their new Star Trek movie directed by JJ Abrams. Shots include images of the bridge of the Enterprise, the villain Nero, a ship (not the Enterprise) and all of the crew in uniform. TrekMovie.com has a complete set of photos and links to all the new shots."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Hand puppet instruments help illustrate musical theory

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These hand puppets by artist Matthew Irvine Brown can be tuned to sing in any scale or specific mode. They consist of basic electronics connected up to Max/MSP and can be used to "help illustrate relatively complex musical theory - such as the differences between blues, chromatic and pentatonic scales." Check out more pics of them at the link below.

Singing Sock Puppets

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Internet Use Can Be Good For the Brain

ddelmonte writes "This Washington Post article examines a test conducted at UCLA. The test had two groups, young people who used the Internet, and older people who had never been online. Both groups were asked to do Internet searches and book reading tasks while their brain activity was monitored. "We found that in reading the book task, the visual cortex — the part of the brain that controls reading and language — was activated," Small said. "In doing the Internet search task, there was much greater activity, but only in the Internet-savvy group." He said it appears that people who are familiar with the Internet can engage in a much deeper level of brain activity. "There is something about Internet searching where we can gauge it to a level that we find challenging," Small said. In the aging brain, atrophy and reduced cell activity can take a toll on cognitive function. Activities that keep the brain engaged can preserve brain health and thinking ability. Small thinks learning to do Internet searches may be one of those activities."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

RIAA Appeals Mistrial Ruling In The Jammie Thomas Trial

The RIAA seems so positively offended that its "making available" theory keeps getting rejected by courts that it's willing to object to just about anything. As you probably know, the RIAA's only "win" in a full trial was declared a mistrial, after the judge realized he had made a "manifest error of law" in incorrectly instructing the jury that simply making a file available in a shared folder was the equivalent of "distribution" under copyright law. The judge then ordered a new trial.

It probably shouldn't come as a surprise that the RIAA is appealing this decision, asking an appeals court to overturn the mistrial ruling and let the original ruling stand. While it may not be a surprise that the RIAA would be upset at the ruling, filing an appeal on a mistrial ruling is highly unusual. Normally, appeals are focused on actual rulings, not a decision that a trial was a mistrial. It seems like a long shot that the appeals court would agree to review the mistrial ruling.

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Sculpt Your Own Earthen Oven

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Do you want to learn about making an earthen oven? Make sure to check out Design~Build~Live at Maker Faire in Austin this weekend.

Natural building uses natural, locally-available materials to construct beautiful, nontoxic, environmentally-responsible structures for living. As a demonstration of natural building that anyone can create in a couple of weekends, we will build a wood-fired earthen oven that not only can be sculpted into limitless forms but bakes amazing pizza!

More about Sculpting Your Own Earthen Oven

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DIY steam distillation

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Sean sent us this link that describes how to extract essentials oils by steam distillation. Looks like an interesting project to try out. [Thanks Sean]

This is a cool trick for improvising a condenser when you don't have access to proper equipment. It could be used for simple distillation (say, to purify water), or, in the slightly more elaborate set-up pictured here, steam distillation (say, to extract essential oils from plants).

More about DIY steam distillation

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Phase One releases Capture One 4 PRO

Phase One has released Capture One 4 PRO, a new version of its RAW workflow software. The lastest version features an enhanced Color Editor and Styles palette. A new Skin Tone tool has been added that helps to set and reproduce skin tones without the use of a gray card. In addition, a lens correction tool has been added to help minimize chromatic aberration, distortion, fringing and features a vignetting tool for framing.

DIY Halloween: Motorized Rat Feast

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Ok, this one is kind of gross, and kind of neat! It's a group of animated rats eating a leg. Yummy! Check out the web site for pictures of the build and a movie of the final prop.

The pictures pretty much tell the story of this prop. A small motor turns a crank (or two in this case), wires are connected to the crank using ring terminals and then routed through eye hooks to each rat. The rats have their tails screwed down to the base board. Because of the design of the rats, this lifts their front feet off the board about half an inch. When the motor rotates, the flexible vinyl rats get pulled down as if they are taking a bite out of the flesh and as the motor comes back around they return to their original position.

More about the Motorized Rat Feast

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Kevin Martin In Favor Of Freeing Up White Space TV Spectrum

While there's been a ton of propaganda from TV broadcasters (and, oddly, wireless microphone vendors) concerning requests from tech companies to make use of the so-called "white space" spectrum that surrounds the spectrum the TV broadcasters use, it appears that FCC boss Kevin Martin is now prepared to support freeing the spectrum for other uses. This isn't all that surprising, given that the FCC has been pushing to free up such spectrum for years, but it is very good news. While there were some early test device failures, the problems were with the devices themselves, not in creating any interference, as the critics claim. This totally unused spectrum could open up all sorts of interesting new wireless technologies that could be tremendously useful in many different ways.

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Freaky-scary Arduino Halloween pumpkin project!

Candytop

Limor has a great Halloween project using an Arduino and the audio shield for Arduino (Wave Shield)... She writes -

Here is a timely project for an electronic halloween pumpkin. With a bit of hacking a $1 plastic pumpkin is upgraded: a sensor embedded in the nose detects when people get close and will randomly play scary sounds and animate the LEDs on its face. The sounds are stored on an SD card so its easy to change and customize what the pumpkin says/screams, while the code is written for an Arduino so its easy to modify the behavior. I'm going to have this pumpkin outside my door to freak out the little kids who go to daycare nearby. Boo!
Project page and more... Read more | Permalink | Comments | Read more articles in Arduino | Digg this!

UK Court Rejects Encryption Key Disclosure Defense

truthsearch writes "Defendants can't deny police an encryption key because of fears the data it unlocks will incriminate them, a British appeals court has ruled. The case marked an interesting challenge to the UK's Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (RIPA), which in part compels someone served under the act to divulge an encryption key used to scramble data on a PC's hard drive. The appeals court heard a case in which two suspects refused to give up encryption keys, arguing that disclosure was incompatible with the privilege against self incrimination. In its ruling, the appeals court said an encryption key is no different than a physical key and exists separately from a person's will."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Fan-readings from my essay collection “Content”

Mathematician/physicist Jan Rubak has done me the honour of recording readings of six of the essays from my nonfiction collection, Content and uploading them to the Internet Archive. He's a great reader, too!
- In Praise of Fanfic
- Metacrap: Putting the torch to seven straw-men of the meta-utopia
- Amish for QWERTY
- Free(konomic) Ebooks
- The Progressive Apocalypse and Other Futurismic Delights
- When the Singularity is More Than a Literary Device: An Interview with Futurist-Inventor Ray Kurzweil
All 28 essays are available as free downloads (and there have been a ton of conversions to everything from Braille to OpenDoc) and, of course, there's a beautiful physical object for sale, too.

Content readings (Thanks, Jan!)

Researchers Claim To Be Able To Determine Political Leaning By How Messy You Are

According to a study to be published in The Journal of Political Psychology, you can tell someone's political affiliation by looking at the condition of their offices and bedrooms. Conservatives tend to be neat and liberals love a mess. Researchers found that the bedrooms and offices of liberals tend to be colorful and full of books about travel, ethnicity, feminism and music, along with music CDs covering folk, classic and modern rock, as well as art supplies, movie tickets and travel memorabilia. Their conservative contemporaries, on the other hand, tend to surround themselves with calendars, postage stamps, laundry baskets, irons and sewing materials. Their bedrooms and offices are well lit and decorated with sports paraphernalia and flags — especially American ones. Sam Gosling, an associate professor of psychology at the University of Texas at Austin, says these room cues are "behavioral residue." The findings are just the latest in a series of recent attempts to unearth politics in personality, the brain and DNA. I, for one, support a woman's right to clean.

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Is Public Shame Enough To Keep ISPs From Doing Bad Stuff With Your Data?

While there has been a lot of attention paid recently to ISPs using clickstream tracking to provide targeted ads, it seems that many people are still focused on the activities of the ad companies, such as NebuAd, which garnered some attention from Congress for its offering. However, as we pointed out recently, many ISPs have been selling your clickstream data to others for years without people knowing about it. Now, with Congress threatening to put regulations in place, the various ISPs are scrambling to push back against that possibility.

For example, Broadband Reports points out that Verizon is claiming that the chance of a public shaming will keep the company honest. While it's certainly true that a public shaming is a risk, it's also true that the sale of clickstream data is usually kept entirely secret, which would preclude any sort of public shaming. Public shaming could work if the companies were upfront and honest with how they're using data. But, since they're not, it's difficult to see how that works as a self-regulating mechanism.

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The Idler’s Glossary, by Joshua Glenn,

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The Idler's Glossary, by Joshua Glenn, "playfully explores the etymology and history of hundreds of idler-specific terms and phrases, while offering both a corrective to popular misconceptions about idling and a foundation for a new mode of thinking about working and not working" is now available on Amazon.

The publisher asked me for a blurb to put on the back cover. Here's what I sent them:

The Idler's Glossary is wonderful! I opened it, set it over my eyes, and took a delightful two-hour nap. Thank you so much.

Here are a few examples from this worthy tome, which is illustrated by the stupendously talented Seth:

bootless: Must every non-useless, non-unprofitable activity involve wearing boots? Quite the contrary, wouldn't you say? Let's start using "slipshod" to mean any activity which is not an end in itself. See: FLIP-FLOP, SLIPSHOD.

bored: Being bored [a term which appeared suddenly, out of nowhere, among the smart set in the 1760s] is the condition—which Guy Debord called the "worst enemy of revolutionary activity"—of being too restless to concentrate, but too apathetic to bust a move. Fortunately, unless one's boredom becomes magnified to a sort of frustrated world-rejection, it's just a mood... and soon passes. Also note that Lin Yutang says that "philosophy began with the sense of boredom," since both involve dreaming wistfully of an ideal world. See: ACEDIA, APATHETIC, ENNUI, SPLEEN.

bum: Like "queer" or "bitch," this term for a wandering mendicant has long since been re-appropriated, as in the song, "Hallelujah, I'm a Bum." As opposed to the guy who sits in the same spot every day asking for a hand-out, the bum [from the German for "saunter"] roams freely throughout the city, the country, the planet: He is king of the road. See: BEGGAR, LOAF, SAUNTER.

cadger: Cadging, the ancient art of imposing upon the generosity of others, is an essential skill for the would-be idler, since poverty is the easiest way to obtain a great deal of free time. According to Henry Miller, who calls it "mooching," when performed without squeamishness or reservations, cadging is both exhilarating and instructive. So long as a cadger [from the Scandinavian word for "huckster"] is generous in turn (though not necessarily in kind), he ought not to be considered a deadbeat, freeloader, or sponger. See: BEGGAR, SCROUNGER.

The Idler's Glossary

Dr. Housing Bubble Interview

I hope Boing Boing readers enjoyed yesterday’s interview with Charles Hugh Smith.

Today I’m posting an interview with another of my favorite bloggers, Dr. Housing Bubble.

I discovered the good Doctor’s blog back in early 2006 and have been a faithful reader ever since. At the time my wife was a real estate agent and the two of us became puzzled, then obsessed by the bizarre socio-economic implications of the then still-inflating housing bubble. This obsession led to discovering great blogs like Patrick.net, Professor Piggington, Peter Viles excellent blog at the LA Times, and of course, the subject of today’s interview., Dr. Housing Bubble.

The Doctor blogs anonymously. Perhaps this is because of his “Home of Real Genius” posts where he highlights -- and loudly cackles about -- some of the most ridiculously overpriced real estate listings on the MLS. If staying incognito helps him do his work, I’m all for it because his blog is such an amazing resource. There is a tremendous amount of erudition, expertise and a profound understanding of both history and economics that go into his writing. Dr HB can take complex and daunting economic theories and lay them open with a surgeon’s skill making them easily understood by all. This guy is good, really good. When he’s on a roll (which is frequently) I’ve actually found myself getting jealous that I didn’t think of that first or even worse, wishing I was as smart as he is! I suppose that’s the best style of compliment I could give the good Doctor, isn’t it? (Jealousy being such a visceral emotion...). I encourage you to check out his blog and to check it out often. The Q&A starts after the jump. Richard Metzger: What happens if the Paulson-Bernanke bailout and the best laid plans of the G8, um, don't work? What happens if housing prices still continue to drop and financial assets keep declining? And what happens when banks won't lend to anyone and there just aren't as many people anxious to sign up for mortgage debt in the middle of an economic downturn anyway? Are we all just fucking doomed? Dr. Housing Bubble: This has turned from a Paulson-Bernanke bailout into a global concerted effort to stabilize other countries as well. The Euro-zone and many of the BRIC countries were benefitting on the prospect that somehow a collapse in the United States will somehow leave the world unaffected. This idea of decoupling -- that is, the U.S. failing while other countries thrived -- seemed far-fetched from the beginning because places like Europe actually have countries with bigger asset bubbles than the U.S. I know, hard to believe but true. That is why you have seen an across the board correction on a global scale. China, Japan, Germany, Russia, and the U.S. for example have seen massive corrections in their stock markets.??

At this point, the assumption is that this has to work. Yet there are many conflicting goals here. Are they seeking to unfreeze the credit markets or put a bottom on housing prices? What about maintaining lending standards yet increasing credit? These may be diametrically opposed. For example, say a bank now has capital to lend but the U.S. employment scene is getting worse. Who will you lend to?

In addition, the notion of protecting home prices is absurd. That is the reason we got into this bubble. Home prices exploding. The market will determine what a home price should go for. For example, in Los Angeles County we had a median household income of $50,000 yet at the peak, the median price hit $550,000. How did this make any sense? Even now with a median home price of $380,000 this may be out of reach for many. Historically home prices reflect local household incomes on a 3 or 4 times ratio. That is, if an area household income is $80,000 a median home price of $320,000 would seem reasonable. ??

Ironically trying to prop home prices up is going to hurt more people from becoming homeowners. Banks are going to have a challenge maintaining lending standards while finding a bulk of qualified buyers to create a sufficient market to move the glut of homes on the market. And if this doesn’t work, I’m sure they will try something else since we are in uncharted territory and clearly the staunch market fundamentalists have now been proven wrong. Let the market do its thing is easier said when you don’t have to look at your investment portfolio get creamed. Of course most of the middle class will benefit little from this. ??

Richard Metzger: Despite the market jumping 936 points on Monday, this whole mess doesn't seem anywhere even near the denouement...  How do you see this moment in time, are we halfway to the bottom? Where are we in the greater event cycle, mid-October 2008?

Dr. Housing Bubble: I think as a nation we are halfway through this mess. Some countries like England, Spain, and Australia may be a year or so behind us in their asset bubbles. We still haven’t seen how the credit default swap market is going to play out. We got a glimpse with the Lehman Brothers auction but that event was lost on most since the markets were collapsing at the time. The details of the current plan seem to be allocating a large portion of the capital to nine of the bigger banks. What of the other 8,000+ with many that are still filled with toxic assets? That is yet to be seen. During the S & L crisis we saw 747 institutions fail. So far this year, we have only seen 15.

In certain markets like California, we may be 2 to 3 years away from any bottom in housing prices. For example, the futures market for the LA-OC area are pricing in a bottom in for the middle of 2011. ??

Richard Metzger: How will history, do you think, view this bailout in retrospect?

Dr. Housing Bubble: That is a hard question but we can rest assured that it will be a pivotal point. What seemed to be a gigantic $700 billion U.S. bailout has turned out to be a multi-trillion dollar global bailout with many countries trying to calm their own markets. As of this week, it seems like the credit markets are responding somewhat to the colossal action taken. It is yet to be seen if this will trickle down and spur consumption and credit once again.??

Let us not forget that consumption is roughly 70% of our nation’s economy. We are creatures that spend. With equity disappearing and many credit card companies locking credit or even lowering credit limits in a time when people “need” access to money, will only force people to buckle up. This will not avoid a massive correction. That is baked in. This major effort was to keep us from going into Mad Max territory. ??

Richard Metzger: What do you think the lay of the land (generally speaking) will look like in a year? In five years? Ten?

Dr. Housing Bubble: You know that question is highly dependent on how this massive infusion of money by the world central banks is going to play out. I think in one year we are still going to see housing prices come down. I think that is rather unavoidable given the magnitude of the housing bubble. In five years it is hard to imagine us spending like we once did at the peak during this credit bubble decade. In five years I still see housing prices lower. Japan did similar things after the bust of its real estate bubble and they experienced their lost decade which is still going on. They essentially propped up failing banks that should have failed and created zombie institutions that slumped along for years dragging down the overall economy.

Think about what was initially proposed by Paulson. He wanted to buy toxic assets from lenders who made irresponsible loans. How was this going to help out the nation as opposed to select lenders? That is why over the weekend, we have shifted from this policy to a more direct approach of capitalizing the biggest and healthiest banks in our country. That makes at least a bit more sense to most Americans. There are still proposal on how to deal with toxic assets which we will need to watch carefully because this is where the big money is going to be lost. ??

Richard Metzger: How will this depression differ from the Great Depression? What are the mitigating factors that could make it a) not as bad as or b) much worse than what happened in the 1930s??

Dr. Housing Bubble: Well it is rather apparent that we have a much more active central bank. Bernanke is an expert with the Great Depression and his philosophy would guide us to believe that he will do everything he can to avoid it. The question is, can we actually avoid a major correction? Many throw around the “Helicopter Ben” nickname since many believe he will start dropping dollars before allowing any deflationary environment to take hold. ??

In the best case scenario, we inflate our way out of this mess over a few years. Deflation would wreck havoc on a world economy with so much debt on the books. Why? Well look at what is happening with housing. A bank may have a mortgage that has a face value of $500,000 on a home that is now appraising at $300,000. The debt doesn’t move with the actual price of the home creating a problem for both the owner and the bank should trouble arise. And for the most part this is what has popped the bubble. After all, if that home inflated to $550,000 and you were in trouble, all you needed to do was sell it. That is how the decade housing bubble got pushed along. ??

The Great Depression also had the U.S. as a creditor nation. Most of Europe was still recovering from World War I during the 20s so we actually were in a better position to lend and adjust balance sheets. This time, we are a big debtor nation. Look at our national debt that is blasted through the $10 trillion mark and is twice as high since 2000. This is frankly unsustainable. I think a better model would be something to what Japan faced in their lost decade. Each crisis is different but we are at least guaranteed a severe recession. The only question that remains is will these actions avoid a global depression. ??

Richard Metzger: The so called FIRE economy is scaling down drastically. You've written that since 2000 nearly 30% of job creation has been related to real estate, including construction jobs, real estate agents, Home Depot, mortgage brokers, insurance brokers, stock brokers and investment bankers, etc. Those jobs have vanished and will not be returning anytime soon. How will these workers be reabsorbed into the work force?

Dr. Housing Bubble: Lately I’ve been paying attention to local community college enrollments here in California since I think this is a quick indicator of how people will retool. We are seeing major jumps in healthcare training in jobs such as nursing, dental hygienist, and x-ray technicians. Relatively well paying jobs with only 2 years of training. The problem as many know, California is royally in the hole and community colleges here in the state are highly subsidized. In fact, all it would cost you is $20 a unit to go to school here. The best bargain around. Given the economy enrollments are skyrocketing and many are not being able to get into these programs. That is the balance that many states will face. How are we going to retrain the workforce when many states are royally in the hole???

In addition, such a large part of our economy is based on this industry that it will not filter out in 1 or 2 years. Other areas that are growing are engineering – certainly if we have a big work creation program in alternative energy – and also in accounting. When I say accounting I do not mean finance. Accountants with the ability to understand international standards, auditors, and tax professionals (hey the government is going to get theirs since these times are tough) are probably areas which will see growth.??

Yet these fields require 2 to 4 years of training. An agent here in California needs only a G.E.D. to take the test. Think about the additional retraining needed here. After the tech bust, you had a fleet of people with bachelor degrees in computer programming / science who were easily absorbed into sales and the FIRE economy. These few job fields require additional educational training which will cost the economy money. Money that is getting allocated to bailing out Wall Street firms and other institutions. We are going to need to make hard choices in our philosophy of what we view as crucial and critical to the sustainability of our country. ??

Richard Metzger: If there is a very serious and protracted economic depression, it seems that certain other job descriptions -- ones which have nothing to do with the FIRE economy -- will also be lost. For well over a decade, America's main driver of economic growth has tended towards borrowing and debt -- and usury for that matter -- and because we hardly manufacture anything anymore, can the nation survive by purveying products like ESPN, Pinkberry and "Gossip Girl" in the world marketplace? If not, what'll we do?!?! It's not like anyone wants our cars anymore!

Dr. Housing Bubble: Precisely. The FIRE economy logically will see the biggest hits. But you will also see major declines in other ancillary industries. I think a rather clear indication of this is looking at Best Buy and the Family Dollar Store. Year to date Best Buy is down 47% while Family Dollar Stores are up 30%. People are shifting from “want” based items to “need” based items. That is also a reason Wal-Mart is up 14% on the year while the overall market even with the massive bounce rally is still down nearly 30% for the year. The consumption economy is going to face some major changes. I think we are going to see a major trend to frugality based items and cultural ways of living. ??

Richard Metzger: What professions seem safest to you? Which lines (FIRE-related jobs aside for a moment) of work do you see as the most vulnerable moving forward?

As I previously noted, I think healthcare and engineering fields have good growth potential. We have an aging baby boomer population which almost guarantees a customer base for the foreseeable future. If we get on with major government spending in alternative energies, engineers will be in high demand as well. I think the lucrative high paying finance jobs are going to be far and few for those looking for that brass ring. I think a similarity we can draw from the Great Depression is the shift of power from Wall Street to Washington D.C. We are seeing the seeds of that already. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now for all practical matters, nationalized. We now have a large stake with A.I.G. This equity sharing plan with the banks? A partial nationalization. What we are seeing is a quick shift of power. Make no mistake. When the dust settles there will be new and stronger regulations and once again you’ll see the pendulum swing to D.C. ??

Richard Metzger: In the Great Depression the further away from the city-centers people lived, the harder time they had finding jobs, so obviously it just made sense to move to the most population dense areas to find employment. Do you see the demographic map of America changing over the next decade as parts of the population migrate to different regions looking for work? What parts of the country do you see doing better off than others? Where do you plan to be and what are your own plans for riding out the shitstorm that is about to strike?

Dr. Housing Bubble: I think areas that had major bubbles like California and Florida are going to have very difficult times adjusting. Many of these states depended heavily on a healthy and bubbly housing market and projected (incorrectly) that this would go on forever. Of course it wasn’t but that is the way they plan out their year. That is why already in California we are facing a projected short fall. The budget just passed a few days ago after a record long stalemate. ??

I think even if we move toward alternative energy that is years away. Oil demand even as it falls is still here with us. Areas in the mid-west with low housing prices and good paying oil related jobs may see mini boom markets.

I am sticking it out in California. Born and raised here. Really can’t see myself anywhere else in this country. This is where my friends and family are. I think the pressure for many working professionals is how can someone own a home in such an expensive area? I think that is why there is so much anger toward the bailout plan. Whenever I get that pressure loaded question of, “do you ever plan to buy?” I always say, “I already own property. Just not here in the state.” There is a cultural pressure to buy a home whether for family reasons or subtle cultural cues that if you don’t own a home, you are like a nomad. For the past few years, I’ve enjoyed the benefits of leasing in an area of my choosing while owning rental property out of state. I won’t say this is the path for most since it does take time and I won’t be like an infomercial and say, “you can make $50,000 by simply flipping this place!” Many were mistaking luck with actual investing skill. Like hitting blackjack three times in a row in Las Vegas. ??

Richard Metzger: Do you think that there are going to be any economic surprises revealed by the Bush administration as they walk out the door?

Dr. Housing Bubble: Of course. The entire decade has been one big jack in the box surprise. Here we have the staunchest of the free market fundamentalists who derided regulation getting the comeuppance of their own philosophy. In fact, even in the early stages of the formation of the bailout bill you still saw this desire to keep things privatized. It was the ultimate form of crony capitalism. That is, "we’ll socialize your losses and privatize your profits." You can’t do that without compromising your actual belief. This is 26+ years in the making here. This is simply the logical extension of the crony capitalistic wild west. The market simply followed the lead of the government. Why look at your income or any down payment? Who cares! Free market for everyone. Since all this was operating in the actual free market fundamentalist system and was working, it simply reinforced their belief and on and on it went.??

The envelope kept getting pushed. Sub-prime, interest only, and pay option ARMs were all manifestation of the Wild West view that was flying around. I think most logical people realize that extreme free market views are wrong just as staunch socialist views are wrong. They suffer from a principal-agent problem. Lenders who were supposed to serve a fiduciary responsibility to borrowers didn’t care since the loan wasn’t going to be in their hands after a day or so. They simply were driven by the fee. The fee structure was setup in a way to create a Ponzi scheme. Some of what people are calling a credit freeze is simply the market returning to more historical and standard loan practices. ??

Richard Metzger: Between now and the end of the month... any predictions?

Dr. Housing Bubble: The California housing market will continue to face pain. Things will heat up in the Presidential race but the economy will drown out most of the political rhetoric. A new law signed by the Governator will require lenders to try a little bit harder with borrowers to avoid foreclosure. This will cause the foreclosure data to appear as a big improvement which it is not. It is simply delaying the inevitable for a few more months. ??

Richard Metzger: What is the most comforting thing you could say to someone who is freaking out about the future reading this very interview???

Dr. Housing Bubble: As a nation we have been through tougher ordeals. World War I, World War II, the Great Depression, and the Civil War. We have come out stronger and better when we focus on what binds us together, not what keeps us apart. We need to accept the brutal reality that things will be tough for a few years. But if we follow what the fear mongers tell us, things will actually be worse. This is a time to think with a clear head and think about what we really want from ourselves and our country. We have a very crucial election coming up so go out there and vote.

If you are a future buyer work on keeping your finances in check and you may actually be able to afford a home without putting yourself into massive debt. Ultimately what most fear right now is instability and I can understand that. Keep yourself healthy (both mentally and physically), spend time with those you care about, and remember that we will come out of this but it is important to figure out how we want our future to look. If we make moves out of fear, our future will reflect action taken in fear. If we make logical decisions and follow courses of action based on clear thinking, we will have a better chance of improving our current situation. It really is up to us and that should make anyone feel empowered.

(Richard Metzger is guest blogger.)


Dr. Housing Bubble Interview

I hope Boing Boing readers enjoyed yesterday’s interview with Charles Hugh Smith.

Today I’m posting an interview with another of my favorite bloggers, Dr. Housing Bubble.

I discovered the good Doctor’s blog back in early 2006 and have been a faithful reader ever since. At the time my wife was a real estate agent and the two of us became puzzled, then obsessed by the bizarre socio-economic implications of the then still-inflating housing bubble. This obsession led to discovering great blogs like Patrick.net, Professor Piggington, Peter Viles excellent blog at the LA Times, and of course, the subject of today’s interview., Dr. Housing Bubble.

The Doctor blogs anonymously. Perhaps this is because of his “Home of Real Genius” posts where he highlights -- and loudly cackles about -- some of the most ridiculously overpriced real estate listings on the MLS. If staying incognito helps him do his work, I’m all for it because his blog is such an amazing resource. There is a tremendous amount of erudition, expertise and a profound understanding of both history and economics that go into his writing. Dr HB can take complex and daunting economic theories and lay them open with a surgeon’s skill making them easily understood by all. This guy is good, really good. When he’s on a roll (which is frequently) I’ve actually found myself getting jealous that I didn’t think of that first or even worse, wishing I was as smart as he is! I suppose that’s the best style of compliment I could give the good Doctor, isn’t it? (Jealousy being such a visceral emotion...). I encourage you to check out his blog and to check it out often. The Q&A starts after the jump. Richard Metzger: What happens if the Paulson-Bernanke bailout and the best laid plans of the G8, um, don't work? What happens if housing prices still continue to drop and financial assets keep declining? And what happens when banks won't lend to anyone and there just aren't as many people anxious to sign up for mortgage debt in the middle of an economic downturn anyway? Are we all just fucking doomed? Dr. Housing Bubble: This has turned from a Paulson-Bernanke bailout into a global concerted effort to stabilize other countries as well. The Euro-zone and many of the BRIC countries were benefitting on the prospect that somehow a collapse in the United States will somehow leave the world unaffected. This idea of decoupling -- that is, the U.S. failing while other countries thrived -- seemed far-fetched from the beginning because places like Europe actually have countries with bigger asset bubbles than the U.S. I know, hard to believe but true. That is why you have seen an across the board correction on a global scale. China, Japan, Germany, Russia, and the U.S. for example have seen massive corrections in their stock markets.??

At this point, the assumption is that this has to work. Yet there are many conflicting goals here. Are they seeking to unfreeze the credit markets or put a bottom on housing prices? What about maintaining lending standards yet increasing credit? These may be diametrically opposed. For example, say a bank now has capital to lend but the U.S. employment scene is getting worse. Who will you lend to?

In addition, the notion of protecting home prices is absurd. That is the reason we got into this bubble. Home prices exploding. The market will determine what a home price should go for. For example, in Los Angeles County we had a median household income of $50,000 yet at the peak, the median price hit $550,000. How did this make any sense? Even now with a median home price of $380,000 this may be out of reach for many. Historically home prices reflect local household incomes on a 3 or 4 times ratio. That is, if an area household income is $80,000 a median home price of $320,000 would seem reasonable. ??

Ironically trying to prop home prices up is going to hurt more people from becoming homeowners. Banks are going to have a challenge maintaining lending standards while finding a bulk of qualified buyers to create a sufficient market to move the glut of homes on the market. And if this doesn’t work, I’m sure they will try something else since we are in uncharted territory and clearly the staunch market fundamentalists have now been proven wrong. Let the market do its thing is easier said when you don’t have to look at your investment portfolio get creamed. Of course most of the middle class will benefit little from this. ??

Richard Metzger: Despite the market jumping 936 points on Monday, this whole mess doesn't seem anywhere even near the denouement...  How do you see this moment in time, are we halfway to the bottom? Where are we in the greater event cycle, mid-October 2008?

Dr. Housing Bubble: I think as a nation we are halfway through this mess. Some countries like England, Spain, and Australia may be a year or so behind us in their asset bubbles. We still haven’t seen how the credit default swap market is going to play out. We got a glimpse with the Lehman Brothers auction but that event was lost on most since the markets were collapsing at the time. The details of the current plan seem to be allocating a large portion of the capital to nine of the bigger banks. What of the other 8,000+ with many that are still filled with toxic assets? That is yet to be seen. During the S & L crisis we saw 747 institutions fail. So far this year, we have only seen 15.

In certain markets like California, we may be 2 to 3 years away from any bottom in housing prices. For example, the futures market for the LA-OC area are pricing in a bottom in for the middle of 2011. ??

Richard Metzger: How will history, do you think, view this bailout in retrospect?

Dr. Housing Bubble: That is a hard question but we can rest assured that it will be a pivotal point. What seemed to be a gigantic $700 billion U.S. bailout has turned out to be a multi-trillion dollar global bailout with many countries trying to calm their own markets. As of this week, it seems like the credit markets are responding somewhat to the colossal action taken. It is yet to be seen if this will trickle down and spur consumption and credit once again.??

Let us not forget that consumption is roughly 70% of our nation’s economy. We are creatures that spend. With equity disappearing and many credit card companies locking credit or even lowering credit limits in a time when people “need” access to money, will only force people to buckle up. This will not avoid a massive correction. That is baked in. This major effort was to keep us from going into Mad Max territory. ??

Richard Metzger: What do you think the lay of the land (generally speaking) will look like in a year? In five years? Ten?

Dr. Housing Bubble: You know that question is highly dependent on how this massive infusion of money by the world central banks is going to play out. I think in one year we are still going to see housing prices come down. I think that is rather unavoidable given the magnitude of the housing bubble. In five years it is hard to imagine us spending like we once did at the peak during this credit bubble decade. In five years I still see housing prices lower. Japan did similar things after the bust of its real estate bubble and they experienced their lost decade which is still going on. They essentially propped up failing banks that should have failed and created zombie institutions that slumped along for years dragging down the overall economy.

Think about what was initially proposed by Paulson. He wanted to buy toxic assets from lenders who made irresponsible loans. How was this going to help out the nation as opposed to select lenders? That is why over the weekend, we have shifted from this policy to a more direct approach of capitalizing the biggest and healthiest banks in our country. That makes at least a bit more sense to most Americans. There are still proposal on how to deal with toxic assets which we will need to watch carefully because this is where the big money is going to be lost. ??

Richard Metzger: How will this depression differ from the Great Depression? What are the mitigating factors that could make it a) not as bad as or b) much worse than what happened in the 1930s??

Dr. Housing Bubble: Well it is rather apparent that we have a much more active central bank. Bernanke is an expert with the Great Depression and his philosophy would guide us to believe that he will do everything he can to avoid it. The question is, can we actually avoid a major correction? Many throw around the “Helicopter Ben” nickname since many believe he will start dropping dollars before allowing any deflationary environment to take hold. ??

In the best case scenario, we inflated our way out of this mess over a few years. Deflation would wreck havoc on a world economy with so much debt on the books. Why? Well look at what is happening with housing. A bank may have a mortgage that has a face value of $500,000 on a home that is now appraising at $300,000. The debt doesn’t move with the actual price of the home creating a problem for both the owner and the bank should trouble arise. And for the most part this is what has popped the bubble. After all, if that home inflated to $550,000 and you were in problem, all you needed to do was sell it. That is how the decade housing bubble got pushed along. ??

The Great Depression also had the U.S. as a creditor nation. Most of Europe was still recovering from World War I during the 20s so we actually were in a better position to lend and adjust balance sheets. This time, we are a big debtor nation. Look at our national debt that is blasted through the $10 trillion mark and is twice as high since 2000. This is frankly unsustainable. I think a better model would be something to what Japan faced in their lost decade. Each crisis is different but we are at least guaranteed a severe recession. The only question that remains is will these actions avoid a global depression. ??

Richard Metzger: The so called FIRE economy is scaling down drastically. You've written that since 2000 nearly 30% of job creation has been related to real estate, including construction jobs, real estate agents, Home Depot, mortgage brokers, insurance brokers, stock brokers and investment bankers, etc. Those jobs have vanished and will not be returning anytime soon. How will these workers be reabsorbed into the work force?

Dr. Housing Bubble: Lately I’ve been paying attention to local community college enrollments here in California since I think this is a quick indicator of how people will retool. We are seeing major jumps in healthcare training in jobs such as nursing, dental hygienist, and x-ray technicians. Relatively well paying jobs with only 2 years of training. The problem as many know, California is royally in the hole and community colleges here in the state are highly subsidized. In fact, all it would cost you is $20 a unit to go to school here. The best bargain around. Given the economy enrollments are skyrocketing and many are not being able to get into these programs. That is the balance that many states will face. How are we going to retrain the workforce when many states are royally in the hole???

In addition, such a large part of our economy is based on this industry that it will not filter out in 1 or 2 years. Other areas that are growing are engineering – certainly if we have a big work creation program in alternative energy – and also in accounting. When I say accounting I do not mean finance. Accountants with the ability to understand international standards, auditors, and tax professionals (hey the government is going to get theirs since these times are tough) are probably areas which will see growth.??

Yet these fields require 2 to 4 years of training. An agent here in California needs only a G.E.D. to take the test. Think about the additional retraining needed here. After the tech bust, you had a fleet of people with bachelor degrees in computer programming / science who were easily absorbed into sales and the FIRE economy. These few job fields require additional educational training which will cost the economy money. Money that is getting allocated to bailing out Wall Street firms and other institutions. We are going to need to make hard choices in our philosophy of what we view as crucial and critical to the sustainability of our country. ??

Richard Metzger: If there is a very serious and protracted economic depression, it seems that certain other job descriptions --ones which have nothing to do with the FIRE economy-- will also be lost. For well over a decade, America's main driver of economic growth has tended towards borrowing and debt --and usury for that matter-- and because we hardly manufacture anything anymore, can the nation survive by purveying products like ESPN, Pinkberry and "Gossip Girl" in the world marketplace? If not, what'll we do?!?! It's not like anyone wants our cars anymore!

Dr. Housing Bubble: Precisely. The FIRE economy logically will see the biggest hits. But you will also see major declines in other ancillary industries. I think a rather clear indication of this is looking at Best Buy and the Family Dollar Store. Year to date Best Buy is down 47% while Family Dollar Stores are up 30%. People are shifting from “want” based items to “need” based items. That is also a reason Wal-Mart is up 14% on the year while the overall market even with the massive bounce rally is still down nearly 30% for the year. The consumption economy is going to face some major changes. I think we are going to see a major trend to frugality based items and cultural ways of living. ??

Richard Metzger: What professions seem safest to you? Which lines (FIRE-related jobs aside for a moment) of work do you see as the most vulnerable moving forward?

As I previously noted, I think healthcare and engineering fields have good growth potential. We have an aging baby boomer population which almost guarantees a customer base for the foreseeable future. If we get on with major government spending in alternative energies, engineers will be in high demand as well. I think the lucrative high paying finance jobs are going to be far and few for those looking for that brass ring. I think a similarity we can draw from the Great Depression is the shift of power from Wall Street to Washington D.C. We are seeing the seeds of that already. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now for all practical matters, nationalized. We now have a large stake with A.I.G. This equity sharing plan with the banks? A partial nationalization. What we are seeing is a quick shift of power. Make no mistake. When the dust settles there will be new and stronger regulations and once again you’ll see the pendulum swing to D.C. ??

Richard Metzger: In the Great Depression the further away from the city-centers people lived, the harder time they had finding jobs, so obviously it just made sense to move to the most population dense areas to find employment. Do you see the demographic map of America changing over the next decade as parts of the population migrate to different regions looking for work? What parts of the country do you see doing better off than others? Where do you plan to be and what are your own plans for riding out the shitstorm that is about to strike?

Dr. Housing Bubble: I think areas that had major bubbles like California and Florida are going to have very difficult times adjusting. Many of these states depended heavily on a healthy and bubbly housing market and projected (incorrectly) that this would go on forever. Of course it wasn’t but that is the way they plan out their year. That is why already in California we are facing a projected short fall. The budget just passed a few days ago after a record long stalemate. ??

I think even if we move toward alternative energy that is years away. Oil demand even as it falls is still here with us. Areas in the mid-west with low housing prices and good paying oil related jobs may see mini boom markets.

I am sticking it out in California. Born and raised here. Really can’t see myself anywhere else in this country. This is where my friends and family are. I think the pressure for many working professionals is how can someone own a home in such an expensive area? I think that is why there is so much anger toward the bailout plan. Whenever I get that pressure loaded question of, “do you ever plan to buy?” I always say, “I already own property. Just not here in the state.” There is a cultural pressure to buy a home whether for family reasons or subtle cultural cues that if you don’t own a home, you are like a nomad. For the past few years, I’ve enjoyed the benefits of leasing in an area of my choosing while owning rental property out of state. I won’t say this is the path for most since it does take time and I won’t be like an infomercial and say, “you can make $50,000 by simply flipping this place!” Many were mistaking luck with actual investing skill. Like hitting blackjack three times in a row in Las Vegas. ??

Richard Metzger: Do you think that there are going to be any economic surprises revealed by the Bush administration as they walk out the door?

Dr. Housing Bubble: Of course. The entire decade has been one big jack in the box surprise. Here we have the staunchest of the free market fundamentalist who derided regulation getting the comeuppance of their own philosophy. In fact, even in the early stages of the formation of the bailout bill you still saw this desire to keep things privatized. It was the ultimate form of crony capitalism. That is, we’ll socialize your losses and privative your profits. You can’t do that without compromising your actual belief. This is 26+ years in the making here. This is simply the logical extension of the crony capitalistic wild west. The market simply followed the lead of the government. Why look at your income or any down payment? Who cares! Free market for everyone. Since all this was operating in the actual free market fundamentalist system and was working, it simply reinforced their belief and on and on it went.??

The envelope kept getting pushed. Sub-prime, interest only, and pay option ARMs were all manifestation of the Wild West view that was flying around. I think most logical people realize that extreme free market views are wrong just as staunch socialist views are wrong. They suffer from a principal-agent problem. Lenders who were suppose to serve a fiduciary responsibility to borrowers didn’t care since the loan wasn’t going to be in their hands after a day or so. They simply were driven by the fee. The fee structure was setup in a way to create a Ponzi scheme. Some of what people are calling a credit freeze is simply the market returning to more historical and standard loan practices. ??

Richard Metzger: Between now and the end of the month... any predictions?

Dr. Housing Bubble: The California housing market will continue to face pain. Things will heat up in the Presidential race but the economy will drown out most of the political rhetoric. A new law signed by the Governator will require lenders to try a little bit harder with borrowers to avoid foreclosure. This will cause the foreclosure data to appear as a big improvement which it is not. It is simply delaying the inevitable for a few more months. ??

Richard Metzger: What is the most comforting thing you could say to someone who is freaking out about the future reading this very interview???

Dr. Housing Bubble: As a nation we have been through tougher ordeals. World War I, World War II, the Great Depression, and the Civil War. We have come out stronger and better when we focus on what binds us together, not what keeps us apart. We need to accept the brutal reality that things will be tough for a few years. But if we follow what the fear mongers tell us, things will actually be worse. This is a time to think with a clear head and think about what we really want from ourselves and our country. We have a very crucial election coming up so go out there and vote.

If you are a future buyer work on keeping your finances in check and you may actually be able to afford a home without putting yourself into massive debt. Ultimately what most fear right now is instability and I can understand that. Keep yourself healthy (both mentally and physically), spend time with those you care about, and remember that we will come out of this but it is important to figure out how we want our future to look. If we make moves out of fear, our future will reflect action taken in fear. If we make logical decisions and follow courses of action based on clear thinking, we will have a better chance of improving our current situation. It really is up to us and that should make anyone feel empowered.

(Richard Metzger is guest blogger.)

?

Every Email In UK To Be Monitored

ericcantona writes "The Communications Data Bill (2008) will lead to the creation of a single, centralized database containing records of all e-mails sent, websites visited and mobile phones used by UK citizens. In a carnivore-on-steroids programme, as all vestiges of communication privacy are stripped away, The BBC reports that Home Secretary Jacqui Smith says this is a 'necessity'."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

The government subsidies behind Cindy McCain’s family fortune

200810152100

(I admit the reason I'm posting is this is because the image is funny.)

John McCain has made no bones about his disgust for greed. But as Senior Editor Radley Balko reports, his wife Cindy's fortune comes from a government-created entity that’s anti-competitive and full of lobbyists and special interests.
Radley Balko on the Government Subsidies Behind Cindy McCain's Family Fortune from Reason Magazine - Hit & Run

Mister Jalopy interviews the folks at Illuminati Motor Works

200810152033

Mister Jalopy interviewed the folks at Illuminati Motor Works, who are competing in the Automotive X Prize (1 Gallon of Gas, 100 Miles - $10 Million: The Race to Build the Supergreen Car"). Here's the MP3 file of the interview.

Mr Jalopy interviews Illuminati Motor Works

Reporting Bullies Online: Helpful Or Not?

For years, there are a group of folks who regularly raise a stink about the rise of cyberbullying and how something needs to be done to "protect the children." Of course, the solutions never make very much sense. At one end, you have things like people dressing up as Spiderman and telling kids to stop bullying each other, and at the other extreme, you have people saying that there should be laws outlawing cyberbullying.

But what about relying on the same technology that enables cyberbullying to potentially be a part of the solution? The AP is running a story about a website that lets kids anonymously report bullying activities (beyond just cyberbullying) to school officials, so that they can take care of it. It's an interesting idea -- and to be honest, my first reaction on reading it was more surprise that such things hadn't existed for years. How hard is it to set up a form on a website that doesn't require logging in and identifying yourself?

However, I wonder how well it actually works in practice. Perhaps it is effective, but it's difficult to see how this actually solves the problem the article claims it solves: which is that whoever reports the bullying will be called a "snitch." In plenty of cases, I would imagine that the bully would simply blame the bullied. And, depending on the situation (i.e., depending on how scared the bully is of further retaliation), it could just get them even more riled up against their victim, naturally assuming that's who reported them. However, if it can be shown to be an effective solution to help stop bullying, then perhaps it does make sense. I certainly wouldn't condone any kind of bullying, but at some point you have to realize that there are always going to be bullies of some kind, and while any solution that can alleviate the suffering of bullied individuals sounds good, they need to be grounded in reality.

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Escalator-powered subway sculpture


I love this installation in a subway using the moving systems to turn gears and unfold pieces of itself. It's a cool Rube Goldberg-esque machine. Via Todd Vanderlin.

Read more | Permalink | Comments | Read more articles in Arts | Digg this!

Homes made from shipping containers

Treehugger has a collection of a dozen fantastic, recession-compliant homes and buildings made from old shipping containers, the packets of the sea. I really like this South Melbourne playground made from everyone's favorite big steel boxes, but there's plenty more to love on the site. Last year, I nearly rented an office in a building made from pieced-together containers -- it was a beautiful space, but I ended up going with something cheaper (a space in a rotting Victorian factory in Clerkenwell).

Shipping containers are cheap, plentiful and strong. I grew up surrounded by containers (and helped my dad design the Kalkinesque warehouse shown above for Northern Canada in the seventies) and always thought the interior dimensions too small, the floors too toxic and the problems of insulating and making them comfortable too challenging, but dozens of architects and shipping container designs have proven me wrong. Let's count the ways.
Crate Expectations: 12 Shipping Container Housing Ideas (via Consumerist)

Australia’s Great Firewall: just like China, Syria and other “free” countries

Andy sez,
In a move that seems to be happening without comment from the Australian media, the Australian government is introducing a censorship regime ostensibly targeted at stopping teenagers accessing online porn.

But rather than being an opt-in system, it's "opt-out". I use the scare quotes because, and this is most insidious part, you can't actually opt out - you can merely be placed on a alternative blacklist which, instead of blocking "content innappropriate for children", block any material deemed to be illegal.

The fact that it will likely reduce everyone's internet performance is secondary; It will most likely incorrectly block 1% of sites, and now what you are allowed to view online is determined and controlled by the state (although most likely quite inaccurately).

The rationale is that since they're setting it up anyway, they're morally obliged to block traffic deemed illegal:

"Illegal is illegal and if there is infrastructure in place to block it, then it will be required to be blocked — end of story."

I don't think I need to go into too much detail about the potential threat to our civil liberties.

People of Australia, please write to your MPs to voice your opposition to this.

No opt-out of filtered Internet (Thanks, Andy!)

Single Neuron Wired To Muscle Un-Paralyzes Monkeys

GalaticGrub writes "A pair of paralyzed monkeys regained the ability to move their arms after researchers wired individual neurons to the monkey's arm muscles. A team of researchers at the University of Washington temporarily paralyzed each monkey's arm then rerouted brain signals from a single neuron in the motor cortex around the blocked nerve pathway via a computer. The neuron fired above a certain rate, the computer translated the signal into a jolt of electricity to the arm muscle, causing it to contract. The monkeys practiced moving their arms by playing a video game."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Is The Indictment Of The Palin Email Hacker Legally Correct?

Stephen Colbert famously coined the term "truthiness" on the very first episode of The Colbert Report. The word is used to explain a person who knows something is true in his or her "gut" rather than via any facts (and, of course, continues to believe that it's true even if the facts contradict the claim). I'm beginning to wonder if there needs to be a similar world for the legal world, where you believe something must be illegal, in your gut, even if the law itself doesn't appear to cover it. That's what we see with folks who want to string up Lori Drew, the woman whose online conversations with a former friend of her daughter may have resulted in that girl's suicide, despite little evidence that Drew's actions broke any actual law. Yet, because of the quasi-lynch mob mentality of folks who felt in their gut that it must be illegal, prosecutors eventually twisted a law to charge her.

Now it's looking like the recent indictment of a teenager for breaking into Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin's email may be facing a similar situation. We had already noted that Justice Department's own definition of the law might make it difficult to prosecute the hacker. However, now a friend sent over an interesting analysis of the indictment itself, by Orrin Kerr, which suggests the entire indictment is legally flawed. Specifically, the statute used, claims that the intrusion is only a felony if used to further a criminal activity.

As Kerr notes, it's not clear what criminal activity was "furthered" by hacking into the email -- unless you read the whole thing recursively, such that the act itself is illegal, and thus doing it is furthering that illegal act. But, obviously, that's legally problematic. So once again, it looks like a situation where plenty of people believe that the act was illegal (very reasonably so, I might argue), but the feds are having trouble finding a law that actually makes it illegal. So, do we have any Colbertian suggestions for what this should be called? Illegalism? Illeginess? Illegfulness?

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YouTube Tells McCain He Doesn’t Get Special DMCA Treatment

Earlier this week, we pointed out the letter the McCain campaign had sent YouTube concerning observing fair use before complying with takedown notices on political videos. As we noted at the time, the problem with the situation wasn't with YouTube, but with the DMCA (which McCain voted for, by the way). Now, YouTube's Zahavah Levine has responded to the letter, and made the same point. YouTube won't change its practices because that would be granting special privileges to the campaign rather than everyone else. Instead, YouTube hopes that McCain will help fix the law so that this isn't a problem going forward:
While we agree with you that the U.S. presidential election-related content is invaluable and worthy of the highest level of protection, there is a lot of other content on our global site that our users around the world find to be equally important, including, by way of example only, political campaigns from around the globe at all levels of government, human rights movements, and other important voices. We try to be careful not to favor one category of content on our site over others, and to treat all of our users fairly, regardless of whether they are an individual, a large corporation or a candidate for public office.

The real problem here is individuals and entities that abuse the DMCA takedown process....

We look forward to working with Senator (or President) McCain on ways to combat abuse of the DMCA takedown process on YouTube, including by way of example, strengthening the fair use doctrine....
This is the right response. As problematic as the takedown process is, the answer should be to fix the law -- not make special exceptions for politicians.

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